Michigan St.
Big Ten
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.5#4
Expected Predictive Rating+15.4#12
Pace71.0#116
Improvement+2.7#76

Offense
Total Offense+9.4#8
First Shot+6.0#29
After Offensive Rebound+3.4#7
Layup/Dunks+2.1#91
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#73
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#155
Freethrows+1.8#48
Improvement+0.7#144

Defense
Total Defense+8.1#11
First Shot+6.4#20
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#34
Layups/Dunks+3.7#43
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#156
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#114
Freethrows+1.1#103
Improvement+2.0#82
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 6.7% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 36.6% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 99.6% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% n/a n/a
Average Seed 2.7 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round92.1% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen66.2% n/a n/a
Elite Eight41.6% n/a n/a
Final Four23.8% n/a n/a
Championship Game13.2% n/a n/a
National Champion7.1% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 54 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 7
Quad 26 - 214 - 9
Quad 32 - 016 - 9
Quad 46 - 022 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 23   Kentucky L 62-69 66%     0 - 1 +6.4 -6.7 +13.3
  Nov 10, 2019 332   Binghamton W 100-47 99%     1 - 1 +38.2 +13.6 +23.4
  Nov 14, 2019 16   @ Seton Hall W 76-73 52%     2 - 1 +20.1 +7.2 +12.7
  Nov 18, 2019 314   Charleston Southern W 94-46 99%     3 - 1 +35.8 +11.9 +22.4
  Nov 25, 2019 100   Virginia Tech L 66-71 88%     3 - 2 +0.0 +3.0 -3.4
  Nov 26, 2019 89   Georgia W 93-85 86%     4 - 2 +14.0 +10.8 +2.2
  Nov 27, 2019 71   UCLA W 75-62 83%     5 - 2 +20.3 +15.2 +6.9
  Dec 03, 2019 3   Duke L 75-87 61%     5 - 3 +2.7 +3.4 +0.2
  Dec 08, 2019 30   Rutgers W 77-65 78%     6 - 3 1 - 0 +21.5 +7.5 +13.4
  Dec 14, 2019 235   Oakland W 72-49 97%     7 - 3 +18.8 -3.9 +22.3
  Dec 18, 2019 118   @ Northwestern W 77-72 85%     8 - 3 2 - 0 +11.6 +6.1 +5.4
  Dec 21, 2019 200   Eastern Michigan W 101-48 97%     9 - 3 +48.0 +18.0 +23.7
  Dec 29, 2019 234   Western Michigan W 95-62 98%     10 - 3 +26.0 +20.1 +6.3
  Jan 02, 2020 31   Illinois W 76-56 78%     11 - 3 3 - 0 +29.3 +7.4 +21.9
  Jan 05, 2020 15   Michigan W 87-69 73%     12 - 3 4 - 0 +29.2 +14.0 +14.1
  Jan 09, 2020 28   Minnesota W 74-58 78%     13 - 3 5 - 0 +25.5 +10.2 +16.4
  Jan 12, 2020 24   @ Purdue L 42-71 56%     13 - 4 5 - 1 -12.9 -14.1 -3.8
  Jan 17, 2020 21   Wisconsin W 67-55 75%     14 - 4 6 - 1 +22.6 +6.0 +17.6
  Jan 23, 2020 34   @ Indiana L 63-67 62%     14 - 5 6 - 2 +10.5 +4.6 +5.5
  Jan 26, 2020 28   @ Minnesota W 70-52 58%     15 - 5 7 - 2 +33.6 +11.1 +24.2
  Jan 29, 2020 118   Northwestern W 79-50 93%     16 - 5 8 - 2 +29.5 +8.7 +21.8
  Feb 01, 2020 21   @ Wisconsin L 63-64 53%     16 - 6 8 - 3 +15.7 +1.2 +14.5
  Feb 04, 2020 26   Penn St. L 70-75 77%     16 - 7 8 - 4 +4.7 +3.1 +1.6
  Feb 08, 2020 15   @ Michigan L 68-77 51%     16 - 8 8 - 5 +8.3 +2.8 +5.6
  Feb 11, 2020 31   @ Illinois W 70-69 58%     17 - 8 9 - 5 +16.4 +3.0 +13.4
  Feb 15, 2020 10   Maryland L 60-67 71%     17 - 9 9 - 6 +5.0 -1.5 +5.8
  Feb 20, 2020 156   @ Nebraska W 86-65 90%     18 - 9 10 - 6 +24.7 +9.9 +13.3
  Feb 25, 2020 25   Iowa W 78-70 77%     19 - 9 11 - 6 +17.9 +6.5 +11.5
  Feb 29, 2020 10   @ Maryland W 78-66 48%     20 - 9 12 - 6 +30.0 +19.3 +11.5
  Mar 03, 2020 26   @ Penn St. W 79-71 57%     21 - 9 13 - 6 +23.8 +20.1 +4.2
  Mar 08, 2020 9   Ohio St. W 80-69 69%     22 - 9 14 - 6 +23.3 +17.8 +6.2
Projected Record 22 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 100.0% 100.0    100.0
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 2.7 6.7 29.9 49.9 13.1 0.4 100.0%
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2.7 6.7 29.9 49.9 13.1 0.4 100.0%